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Arima Forum => Open Forum => Topic started by: Yachter Yat on February 08, 2018, 12:42:14 PM

Title: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 08, 2018, 12:42:14 PM
   Anybody following the market?   Yes......we're all hemorrhaging money.  Nevertheless, keep an eye out for the low. Buying time has a way of sneaking-up on you.  I'm going for the dividend paying REITS. 

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Mooch on February 08, 2018, 01:33:24 PM
Anybody following the market?

I'd rather be fishing in da Nile.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 08, 2018, 01:37:47 PM
   Aaah..........okay!

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Wiley on February 08, 2018, 07:51:23 PM
Dunno about back east but out west in ca. We’re building like there’s no tomorrow. Trouble is commercial vacancy rate also appears to be climbing. Scares the heck out of me. Lost everything in last “ Great Recession “  hope those reits pay off for ya.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Croaker Stroker on February 09, 2018, 12:22:42 AM

The market is going back up in after hours. Time to buy more. The day traders are probably making a fortune.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 05:59:24 AM
   I happen to have a couple of REITS that focus mostly on Health care real estate.  Some acute care stuff along with long term elderly facilities.  They do consistently well in terms of dividends.  (I guess people are going to continue to get old)  Now, I don't know about out West, but here in the East, there's a waiting list for most elderly people trying to get in to these facilities.  Remember, with these classes of securities, you don't want to just look at the market value of the stock; they've taken a hit recently, just like everybody else.  Instead, pay attention on their enterprise value.  Keep in mind, some of these REITS can have enterprise values twice (or more) that of their market values.  That's real brick and mortar stuff they happen to own that never goes down.  Granted, some venture started by two college flunkies on a laptop in a basement might prove to be profitable.....but it's risky.  The way I see it is; the older you get, the more important it becomes to go for the solid stuff. 

Yat

BTW, if your older, and in mutual funds............you shouldn't be.   Take a hard look at dividend yielding ETFs.




   
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Rokefin on February 09, 2018, 08:55:03 AM
Don't forget the real long shot - lottery :facepalm:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 09:06:01 AM
     That's pretty funny.  You'd have a better chance wishing upon a star.  :jester: 

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Markshoreline on February 09, 2018, 10:08:03 AM
Reid’s are a good component to a diversified portfolio.  Interesting ideas, Yat.  Also, buy on the dips.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Croaker Stroker on February 09, 2018, 11:30:59 AM

The market is going back up in after hours. Time to buy more. The day traders are probably making a fortune.


Too late.    :jester:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 11:45:13 AM
   "Diversified" is right, Mark.  That's the key word we should always keep in mind when investing.  "Strategy" is another.  Part of that strategy should be to know when to shift your investments as you age.  I've always maintained that, investing in a "start-up" company with a "bright future" (that pays "0" dividends) at the age of 64 might not be a good idea.  What good would that do you when your 6 feet under and your heirs discover that boatload of stock you purchased for 2 bucks a share is now worth 200?  High dividend yield in old age can make life a lot nicer.  In addition to that, it can also serve to offset the amount of capital you have to cash-in, in order to live, as well.

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Croaker Stroker on February 09, 2018, 11:49:59 AM

Croaker Stroker’s stock tip of the day....

“Don’t buy stocks with more money than you can afford to loose.”

Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 11:53:10 AM
   Croaker, I'm not sure I know what you mean.  If your saying you have nothing to invest; that's one thing.  If, on the other hand, you have securities that are....say, "growth stocks", then that's another.  If it's the latter, and you are quite elderly, I'd say, get out, and get into some bond ETF funds or REITs and start realizing a little income. 

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Croaker Stroker on February 09, 2018, 12:11:01 PM

I’m just saying that any investment in the stock market is a gamble. Don’t bet the farm.

Pay off your home....put 80% of your cash in the bank. Gamble the rest.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: pgbrown on February 09, 2018, 12:19:47 PM
My 2 footitis is currently on hold.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 12:20:58 PM
   Croaker........WHAAAT?  80% of your cash in the bank?  Are you kidding? Don't ever do that!  If your the kind that messes your pants about investing, then look at stocks like AT&T.  It pays $2.00 a share per year, and right now it's little down (like everything else) so you can pick-it-up for about $35.  In case your bad at math..........2 divided by 35 is about 5.7% per year.  Compare that with your bank rates.  AT&T?  You almost can't get any more "blue chip". 

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Threeweight on February 09, 2018, 02:49:12 PM
The flip side is that for average Joes, the market tanking at the same time you need your 401k for retirement, or a catastrophic illness, is financially devastating.  A lot of people got hosed the last time the Wall Street/big bank bubble burst, and will now be working into their 70's instead of retiring with a nest egg. 

We have had 9 years of economic growth (albeit with stagnant wages), and now we have a ballooning federal deficit and raging dumpster fire of a federal government, casting doubt on the strength of US bonds and the dollar, and a lot of global instability to boot.  We are overdue for a major correction, and I don't think we've had it yet.

I'd play it safe on the stock market for a while, and look for investments more likely to survive a downturn. 
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 09, 2018, 02:57:56 PM
   With the threat of interest rates rising, you'll see the bond market begin to spike.  That said, not much survives in a true crash.  When investing for yield (as you should be doing in old age), be sure to research that dividend history.  In that respect, the payouts of stocks like AT&T have weathered quite well

Yat.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Croaker Stroker on February 09, 2018, 05:03:12 PM
   Croaker........WHAAAT?  80% of your cash in the bank?  Are you kidding? Don't ever do that!  If your the kind that messes your pants about investing, then look at stocks like AT&T.  It pays $2.00 a share per year, and right now it's little down (like everything else) so you can pick-it-up for about $35.  In case your bad at math..........2 divided by 35 is about 5.7% per year.  Compare that with your bank rates.  AT&T?  You almost can't get any more "blue chip". 

Yat

I mess my pants when I loose money.  5.7% is a good yield, but not good enough to make up for the stock price drop of 20% ??
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Tj805 on February 09, 2018, 06:44:59 PM
An old cowboy showed me how to double my money.

Right before your about to buy something cool and great that you absolutely need.

Fold the money over and stick it back in your pocket.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 10, 2018, 07:37:12 AM
   Let's see if I can help. Okay......... the "old cowboy" leaves the money in his back pocket?  Here's what happens:  Years later he's an "older cowboy" with much less money in his back pocket.  LESS MONEY, you ask?   Yes!.......It's called "DEflation" by way of "INflation".

   Meanwhile, a man known to many as "Yat", removes money from his pocket and invests in........you guessed it......dividend securities.  Although he doesn't ride a horse........he does drive a "Beetle".  Years later he goes from that "Beetle".........to a "Mercedes". 

   I just love stories with happy endings.

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: headduck on February 10, 2018, 07:48:37 AM
I like happy endings too... :cha:

Thanks for the insight Yat.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Fisherdv on February 10, 2018, 07:51:27 AM
Yat, I think I need to set up a “free” consultation with you to go over my future retirement strategies and goals. :shrug9: :jester: You sold me with that “beetle to Benz” line  :jester: Oh, not to mention all that land :jester:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Fisherdv on February 10, 2018, 08:04:23 AM
An old cowboy showed me how to double my money.

Right before your about to buy something cool and great that you absolutely need.

Fold the money over and stick it back in your pocket.
I guess that cowboy never owned a boat :shrug9:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Markshoreline on February 10, 2018, 08:27:24 AM
Back in the day many companies provided a retirement plan which coupled with Social Security could lead to a comfortable retirement.  However, many employers have dropped costly retirement plans in favor of a match for employee contributions into a plan such as Fidelity offers.  It's a pretty easy way for working guys to develop a sizable retirement, especially if you start early so your money has years to grow.  You can also contribute to your own retirement plan (such as a Roth IRA) in addition to the one sponsored by your employer.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Threeweight on February 10, 2018, 08:55:15 AM
IMO, those managed funds through Fidelity and the like are a way better way to go for the average Joe or Jill than trying to play the market.  Stock market these days is driven by computers making millions of trades a second to get .001 cent more value each time, fueled by access to information normal people don't have.  If you really track things closely (like Yacht) there are areas of the market where you can make some $$, but you are better off using reputable managed funds with a diversified set of investments, and letting them do the work for you.
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 10, 2018, 09:45:10 AM
   Threeweight;  Yes......and........no!   It depends largely on what you define as "funds".  If your talking about mutual funds, the answer is a resounding......NO.   To begin with, when you invest in a mutual fund, you do so in "dollars", as opposed to "shares".  This is important because your money then goes into a "pool" of money that a fund manager uses to purchases securities......at his or her own discretion.  In other words, you have no control over what the manager elects to invest in. 

   It gets worse!  Although legislators are continuously trying to eliminate this, current regulations require mutual funds to keep a percentage of cash on hand as a safety net against any potential market crashes.  Meaning, they have to maintain enough liquidity to be able to protect their investors should too many decide to suddenly cash-out all at once.  It depends on a number of factors, but the amount that is required to be held in escrow generally runs somewhere around 5 to 10%.  What does this mean?  It means (for example) if you invest $1000.00 in a mutual fund, it could be that as much as 10% never really goes to work with its full potential.  This could be the reason we see the recent statistics siting the fact that 90% of mutual funds fail to outperform the S&P500.  In fact (now that I mention it) an S&P500 index fund would be a wise investment for anybody not wanting to continuously monitor their securities.

   I think one of the biggest problems with individual investors is, they have a tendency to see things through the prism of a day trader's eyes.  The vision of buying a stock for "x" this month and selling for "xx" 6 months down the road is mouthwatering, right? Truth is, that rarely happens in the real world and it can be especially hazardous if your either in retirement or approaching so.  This is why I'm so high on the dividend payers.  They go up and down (like all the others), but the income remains the same.......and actually increases as time goes on.

   My own portfolio is mostly centered on income producers.  I have two ETFs with Guggenheim and the rest are individual stocks that I've chosen. At this time I'm realizing roughly 7% per year on my money.  At this moment many are down in valuation, but it doesn't matter.  I know they'll come back, and in the meantime, I keep getting the same dividends.  Now, if I said to you:  Give me $100.00 and I'll give you $7.00 a year.......you probably tell me to hit the road.  But.......if I said:  Give me $100,000.00 and I'll give you $7,000.00 a year you might start thinking more seriously about this.  How about $300,000.00?  What would $21,000.00 a year do in terms of augmenting somebody's Social Security?

Yat


Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Tj805 on February 12, 2018, 06:03:50 PM
We live in such a materialist world.
It really blows my mind sometimes .
Don't get me wrong having nice things is great.
But sometimes people need to learn to be happy with what they have.
And look abound and think (Mabey my life isn't all that bad ).

And yat
I'd rather drive and / old /beat to shit/ ugly as hell / dodge pickup then a new Benz anyway. :twocents:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 12, 2018, 07:08:54 PM
    TJ;  I've had plenty of ugly, shitty old cars in my life.  When my wife and I were first married, I had an old 55 Ford 3 speed manual with no second gear.  Every week when I got my pay, we used decided whether or not to have steak one night or put the money in the tank and take a ride.  Nothing was given to me.....I've worked hard all my life, never collected welfare, food stamps or any other social support.  I worked my way through school by spending days in the classroom and working nights for years to try and better myself.  I've never looked up to anybody for what they have, nor have I ever looked down on anybody for what they don't have.  I have some thoughts for people who criticize me for what I've earned...........just can't express 'em on this Forum. 

Your Arima brother,  Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Markshoreline on February 13, 2018, 08:41:30 AM
At least the market has swallowed its correction and seems a happier place again-  at least for now...
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Wiley on February 17, 2018, 01:27:23 PM
I know little to nothing about investing. I’m at an age I can’t afford to gamble what little I have left after the “Great Recession “ real estate prices here in California Bay Area are obscenely high. I’m truly hoping we have inflation like in the 80’s so maybe I can get the 7-8% you are currently getting as a wise and knowledgeable investor. At least if I can keep my money safe they can’t take it away from me again. Don’t think I’d survive that again. I’d probably be thankful for the cheaper bullet prices spoken of on here.plus I’d only need 1. :shrug9:
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 17, 2018, 02:44:22 PM
   If your at (or beyond) retirement age, then investing for stock appreciation is beyond foolish.   That said, you'll want to focus on dividend payers.  Your looking for income at this point.  If you have a high level of apprehension when it comes to investing, then a stock like the "Blue Chip King" of dividends would be AT&T.  This stock just upped its dividend to $2.00 per share and at the current market price is yielding about a 5 1/2% return on your money. 

   My advice would be to invest some of your retirement funds in T, and then look closely at those Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) I spoke about earlier. Right now, I'm in Gladstone Commercial (ticker GOOD) and Sabra (ticker SBRA).  Both have taken a hit recently (like the rest of this sector) and as a result are returning pretty substantial returns.  I just upped my position in Sabra and gave myself a raise. (ha)   Another of my favorites is One Liberty Properties (ticker OLP).   While GOOD and OLP are more focused on commercial real estate, Sabra concentrates largely on health care stuff.  It may put your mind at ease to look at the dividend paying history of the stocks I've mentioned.  And remember, the dividends of these generally remains the same.....regardless of market value fluctuation.   

   I can't leave without mentioning two of my other "Dividend Darlings".  Tickers are:  GBAB and GOF.  They're both Guggenheim high yielding closed-end ETFs.  Like GOOD, these two pay monthly.....which is especially nice for quick cash flow.  Take a look!

Yat

Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Wiley on February 17, 2018, 03:53:59 PM
Thank you for sharing your expertise with us unknowing Yat. Really appreciate it. Maybe we As an Arima group could pool some funds and have you invest for us. Then we could buy Arima and stretch that explorer for ya... ticker could AOFYS... Arima owners for Yat stretching,,, :bowdown:
Thanks again
Wiley
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 17, 2018, 03:55:48 PM
   Normally I would have said no.............but since you mentioned "stretching"....... :smile1:

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Wiley on February 24, 2018, 07:29:33 AM
Hey Yat, what do you think about silver investment?
Thanks Wiley
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 24, 2018, 01:18:35 PM
   Hi Wiley:

   Sorry to be so long getting back to you.  I was out "warming-up" the Honda outboard. (ha)  Hasn't been run for a while, so I thought it might be a good idea. 

   As to your question:  I should probably be right-up-front and honest and tell you that (for a number of reasons)  I'm not a big fan of commodities.  Rather than bore you with the details of that.........let's talk specifically about silver:  I suppose if you research this, you could find more than a number of articles touting the investment in this commodity.  Although I haven't followed those recently, I'd be willing to bet that some might predict this to be the quintessential path to untold riches.  That said, and as with many of these reports, you always have to keep in mind the potential prurient interests of the authors........meaning simply, the person writing about it may be (him or herself) heavily invested.

   The aforementioned "warning" aside, the most obvious question is (unfortunately) to answer your question with............you guessed it.........a question.  So here's the question:  When you say investing in silver, do you mean buying "actual silver".........as in bullion?  Or,  are you thinking about securities focusing on that particular commodity?  There's a big difference!   If your intention is to invest in "hard silver", then my suggestion would be for you to research the chart history of where the value of this specific investment has been and decide for yourself if those historical returns meet with your expectations.  Or ......let's look at it another way:  If your the kind of person who happens to posses the mindset that there is a potential for the monetary structure of the world to be coming to an end............then, okay......go for it!  I often see this as being akin to those who insist on keeping their money in a cookie jar.   Personally, I don't see the monetary structure collapsing anytime soon. 

   It's funny we're talking about this, because (as it happens) my father-in-law was an avid coin collector.  Silver was his "thing".  If it was silver........he bought it..........coins, ingots.........anything silver.  What I found interesting is (later in his life) when he went to redeem this stuff, he found it difficult to get anywhere near market price.  That always left me with the impression that you seemingly had to pay current market for this stuff when you bought it, but fight for the same when selling.  I honestly believe this may still be true today.

   "Hard sliver" aside, if your looking at sliver "stocks"; that's another story.  You can invest in Index or ETFs that focus on this commodity.  Some of the companies that mine this metal, and others that only provide the financing for those operations, issue this stock.  These investments would probably be more for those who believe silver to be more important to the tech industry than as an "apocalyptic hedge".  The best advice I can give you is to do your homework.  Silver itself is about mid 16's per ounce at this time.  If you look back, it hasn't peaked for something like 7 or 8 years.  Back then, it looks like it was running a bit above 40.  So, I guess the question is:  Where's the next peak?   Keep in mind....... this is only my opinion, but I can think of a number of better investments.

Yat   
   

   

   

   


   
   
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Salmon Hobo on February 24, 2018, 03:33:10 PM
By owning gold or silver bullion/ coins etc, you really lose the ability of compound interest or dividend payments that even a conservative investment would give you and can really add up over 10, 20 , 30 + years.  A good analogy I have heard is that 1000 years ago or even a hundred years ago, a single gold 1 ounce coin would buy a person one of the nicest suits, clothing of the time. Well now skip ahead to today and that is about that you would still get for a gold coins...a really nice high end tailored suite.  But if someone was to invest the same value of that coin 100 or just 50 years ago..they would be quite well off now!...maybe buying the suit shop. Food for thought...
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 24, 2018, 05:57:07 PM
      Good point.  Imagine a $5000 investment in Amazon 20 or so years ago.  You'd be a millionaire today.  That said, finding the "next big thing" is one thing......having the time to "wait-it-out" is another. 

Yat
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Wiley on February 24, 2018, 07:34:13 PM
Brilliant guys thank you for the thoughts and insights. Helps an ignorant ol carpenter a bunch.. still a frightening prospect for the unknowing...
Title: Re: The stock market
Post by: Yachter Yat on February 25, 2018, 08:12:12 AM
    Wiley;  Never be afraid of investing.  Believe me, it's a much better option than putting your money in the mattress.  In fact, over the years I've come to the conclusion; the best way to do this might be to (arguably) invest in securities yourself.......meaning to say, without going through what we typically know as a third party fund manager.  (I get the feeling I might have to explain that "third part manager" thing.........maybe later)

   In the meantime, as we all should know, you or I can't actually buy stocks, or any kind of publicly traded funds, ourselves.  The reason is, you must be licensed to do so. These transactions are done on your behalf through legally registered brokers or brokerage houses such as Schwab, Fidelity, etc..........who happen to employ licensed brokers.  To get started, all you have to do is go down to your local (for example) Schwab office and open an account.   You tie this to a personal bank account with the normal passwords, get on line, do some homework, and start playing.  Basically, you simply transfer money from your personal bank account to the Schwab account to buy the securities.  When these stocks pay dividends, (normally on a quarterly or monthly basis) these dividends are automatically transferred to the cash balance in the Schwab account. If you want this cash, you simply electronically transfer it to your personal bank.  I should mention, most of these brokerage houses allow the option of using the in-house account as a bank.......but my preference has always been to transfer funds to and from my local bank.  I don't like leaving a large cash balance in a brokerage account.  One of the reasons is they pay almost nothing for the privilege of using it.

   Now, once you open this account, the next big leap will be for you to decide what to buy.  For many people, this can be the most daunting of decisions.  All I can say is, do your homework.  Pick solid companies with a good track record. As I said earlier; don't be afraid of investing.  Truth is, you should actually be more afraid of "not" investing.  There's a line from the Tennessee Williams play; "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" that never fails to haunt me whenever it crosses my mind.   It's this:  "You can have no money when your young.....but you can't when your old."  I found this to be so inherently profound that I've never forgotten it. 

Yat