Salmon Run Forecasts (WA)

[fishmeister]

The Washington salmon run size forecasts are out.  Here's a link for those interested:

https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon/forecasts

Looks like a lot of areas are down in numbers this year.  A couple "bright spots" (for my area) are:  (1) Skagit River Coho are forecast for a 25K increase over last year.  Maybe this year we can go back to keeping fish with all of their fins  (2) Baker River Sockeye looks really good.  Last season was forecast for 31K and the actual run came in over double that.  This year, 56K is the forecast.  If that forecast comes in on-target or better, it's going to be a blast in Baker Lake again.

[BayWolf]

I'm really surprised the forecast isn't magnificent. 
It's usually stellar until after April when everyone buys their license, then the revisions and emergency closures start. 

[JDB]

Yeah... About the forecasts: I trust that "science" as much as the VA telling me that they'll provide timely treatment for a service connected condition...

I keep buying my hunting and fishing licenses, but I get less and less opportunities each year - it must be inflation I guess.

[fishmeister]

I trust that "science" as much as the VA telling me that they'll provide timely treatment for a service connected condition...

Just about as reliable as the "science" of a certain rodent that comes out of a hole every Feb 2nd.  He claimed an early spring this year.  Here it is, 04Mar, and it's dumping snow at my place and I'm staying home from work because the roads are a mess.  I'm calling B.S. on the groundhog.

[BayWolf]

I keep buying my hunting and fishing licenses, but I get less and less opportunities each year - it must be inflation I guess.

Hey, we get more "Opportunities every year.  Opportunities to stay home, try a new hobby or catch up on all the Honey Do's when our favorite fishers are closed early or severely restricted.  Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% for protecting our fish for future generations, but It HAS to be fairly applied across the user groups.

Cheer up though.  WDFW is now purely conservation driven, so they need your license money to conserve more fish for commercial operations.

[Barnaclebob]

is there any good source of past data for initial forecast vs updated forecast, vs estimated actual returns?

[headduck]

Each hatchery posts escapement reports. Believe all the info is there.